Yeah, well, not like there's anything there but some pretty elementary math. Not good or bad, just math.
Doing the same, I think we'll probably top 100K by the end of May.
Best hope is that it is just lower grade and endemic through the summer- might get daily death tolls down into the hundreds through the summer as we get through the large number of cases that have rolled on in the last couple of weeks.
Hope so, but can't be sure. Lots of people Just Know lots of things but actually nobody does, even the people who know a lot.
In Germany the R0 is back over 1 as they start to end the lockdowns. At that rate it never ends until there's a vaccine or in several years if there's herd immunity (if it doesn't mutate).
The only good off ramp is to not get on the on ramp. Which is why people had been writing the playbook on this stuff for more than a decade.
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